本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛Thinking in Stock续一： 请教天量（巨量）的含义。
放出天量，肯定背后有文章。是什么文章呢？
国内有如下看法。北美由于有众多的衍生工具及卖空机制，这些说法应该需要修正。如何修正呢？我相信应该有不少的分析师分析天量的问题，有更多的前辈研究过。能否不吝施教，拯救小弟于水火？
国内的这些看法，需要同时考虑是否“对敲”，才有实际意义。考虑对敲的一个办法，是检查当日的各证券营业所的买卖量及其他因素。北美券商是否也有类似猫腻？（国内也属违规，但是很难界定）。
1 量在价先。天量之后有天价。
2 巨量涨不动，见顶嫌疑。庄稼放水。
原则看似简单，当年应用起来满有效果。就象是否攻打伊拉克，布什几句话可听可不听，但是海湾地区增兵减灶之类的事却绝对值得密切关注。量，股票之兵也。
近一个月来，北美颇有一些股票放出天量，却绝对不敢简单套用当年的法则。在此提出问题，还望高人指点。
附：见到一片讨论巨量的文章，可惜看不大懂。
So who's buying all that WorldCom?
Troubled telecom moved 3.3 bln shares in last three days
By Rex Crum, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 5:00 AM ET July 4, 2002
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- So who's buying and selling all those WorldCom shares?
The troubled telecom services provider -- one of the most widely-held stocks on the Nasdaq with an average of about 100 million shares traded a day in May and June -- saw more than 3.3 billion shares change hands since Monday as its $3.8 billion accounting fraud rocked the investing world.
More than 1.5 billion shares of WorldCom (WCOME: news, chart, profile) were traded on Monday, when the stock reopened after the June 25 fraud disclosure. Turnover exceeded 820 million shares on Tuesday, and then 1 billion more than that on Wednesday. The shares, which collapsed to as low as 7 cents each on Monday, closed at 22 cents Wednesday, tripling for daring buyers who went in at the low.
"Historically, great profits have come from buying companies in trouble," said Paul Merriman, the head of Merriman Capital Management in Seattle. "WorldCom is a company in trouble, but there is definitely some value there."
With its UUNet Internet backbone carrying the most Internet traffic, including 70 percent of all e-mails, its MCI local and long-distance telephone operations, and its MFS and Brooks Fiber businesses, WorldCom has the kind of assets that, regardless of the company's financial state, make it an attractive buy.
As a sign of the perceived value of WorldCom's assets, telecom company IDT (IDT: news, chart, profile) announced late Tuesday it would make a $5 billion bid for WorldCom's MCI, MFS and Brooks Fiber businesses. That's what caused the rally in the company's shares on Wednesday.
Because of the market action surrounding WorldCom, Merriman and other fund managers say another reason for the stock's popularity lies with traditional short-sellers and buyers.
"You're probably looking at a lot of hedge funds, guys who sold short on the way down, and now they're betting on a serous bounce," said Michael Boyle, chairman of the Boyle Fund. "They're trying to get the stock back up. Who knows what they'll do tomorrow?"
Another possibility for the heavy volume in WorldCom shares comes from inter-trader transactions. Rick Black, an analyst with Blaylock & Partners, says some traders exchange shares of stock between each other -- in effect swapping large amounts of cheap stock for smaller amounts of a more valuable stock -- instead of putting the shares out into the open market. The exchanged shares still get counted as part of a stock's overall volume.
Black estimates that about one-third of WorldCom's shares on Wednesday moved in such a manner.
Regardless of why others might want WorldCom's stock, Black says there's still no way he would own it right now.
"My position is (WorldCom) should only be a discretionary investment," Black said. "There are still too many things that could lead this company to bankruptcy."
For the small investor, most fund managers and financial advisers would recommend staying away from playing the penny stock game. Shares of Enron (ENRNQ: news, chart, profile) also bounced around violently once they collapsed below a dollar each in December.
But they are now sitting at 8 cents each, as the action has moved to WorldCom.
And so while there are lots of theories about the heavy trading and the answer probably is a mix of all of them, investors who focus on more traditional strategies said the true reasons for the heavy volume remain a mystery.
"I sure can't think of any logical answer for it," said John Hock, chief investment officer at Altrinsic Global Advisors.
Rex Crum is a reporter for CBS.MarketWatch.com in San Francisco.
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?print=1&guid={5CD604E9-F159-4DB8-8D29-C1A4CE2C2549}&siteid=mktw更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
放出天量，肯定背后有文章。是什么文章呢？
国内有如下看法。北美由于有众多的衍生工具及卖空机制，这些说法应该需要修正。如何修正呢？我相信应该有不少的分析师分析天量的问题，有更多的前辈研究过。能否不吝施教，拯救小弟于水火？
国内的这些看法，需要同时考虑是否“对敲”，才有实际意义。考虑对敲的一个办法，是检查当日的各证券营业所的买卖量及其他因素。北美券商是否也有类似猫腻？（国内也属违规，但是很难界定）。
1 量在价先。天量之后有天价。
2 巨量涨不动，见顶嫌疑。庄稼放水。
原则看似简单，当年应用起来满有效果。就象是否攻打伊拉克，布什几句话可听可不听，但是海湾地区增兵减灶之类的事却绝对值得密切关注。量，股票之兵也。
近一个月来，北美颇有一些股票放出天量，却绝对不敢简单套用当年的法则。在此提出问题，还望高人指点。
附：见到一片讨论巨量的文章，可惜看不大懂。
So who's buying all that WorldCom?
Troubled telecom moved 3.3 bln shares in last three days
By Rex Crum, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 5:00 AM ET July 4, 2002
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- So who's buying and selling all those WorldCom shares?
The troubled telecom services provider -- one of the most widely-held stocks on the Nasdaq with an average of about 100 million shares traded a day in May and June -- saw more than 3.3 billion shares change hands since Monday as its $3.8 billion accounting fraud rocked the investing world.
More than 1.5 billion shares of WorldCom (WCOME: news, chart, profile) were traded on Monday, when the stock reopened after the June 25 fraud disclosure. Turnover exceeded 820 million shares on Tuesday, and then 1 billion more than that on Wednesday. The shares, which collapsed to as low as 7 cents each on Monday, closed at 22 cents Wednesday, tripling for daring buyers who went in at the low.
"Historically, great profits have come from buying companies in trouble," said Paul Merriman, the head of Merriman Capital Management in Seattle. "WorldCom is a company in trouble, but there is definitely some value there."
With its UUNet Internet backbone carrying the most Internet traffic, including 70 percent of all e-mails, its MCI local and long-distance telephone operations, and its MFS and Brooks Fiber businesses, WorldCom has the kind of assets that, regardless of the company's financial state, make it an attractive buy.
As a sign of the perceived value of WorldCom's assets, telecom company IDT (IDT: news, chart, profile) announced late Tuesday it would make a $5 billion bid for WorldCom's MCI, MFS and Brooks Fiber businesses. That's what caused the rally in the company's shares on Wednesday.
Because of the market action surrounding WorldCom, Merriman and other fund managers say another reason for the stock's popularity lies with traditional short-sellers and buyers.
"You're probably looking at a lot of hedge funds, guys who sold short on the way down, and now they're betting on a serous bounce," said Michael Boyle, chairman of the Boyle Fund. "They're trying to get the stock back up. Who knows what they'll do tomorrow?"
Another possibility for the heavy volume in WorldCom shares comes from inter-trader transactions. Rick Black, an analyst with Blaylock & Partners, says some traders exchange shares of stock between each other -- in effect swapping large amounts of cheap stock for smaller amounts of a more valuable stock -- instead of putting the shares out into the open market. The exchanged shares still get counted as part of a stock's overall volume.
Black estimates that about one-third of WorldCom's shares on Wednesday moved in such a manner.
Regardless of why others might want WorldCom's stock, Black says there's still no way he would own it right now.
"My position is (WorldCom) should only be a discretionary investment," Black said. "There are still too many things that could lead this company to bankruptcy."
For the small investor, most fund managers and financial advisers would recommend staying away from playing the penny stock game. Shares of Enron (ENRNQ: news, chart, profile) also bounced around violently once they collapsed below a dollar each in December.
But they are now sitting at 8 cents each, as the action has moved to WorldCom.
And so while there are lots of theories about the heavy trading and the answer probably is a mix of all of them, investors who focus on more traditional strategies said the true reasons for the heavy volume remain a mystery.
"I sure can't think of any logical answer for it," said John Hock, chief investment officer at Altrinsic Global Advisors.
Rex Crum is a reporter for CBS.MarketWatch.com in San Francisco.
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?print=1&guid={5CD604E9-F159-4DB8-8D29-C1A4CE2C2549}&siteid=mktw更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net